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DJ ICE Cocoa Review: Lower But Holds Ground Amid Dollar Rise

84 days ago
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

U.S. cocoa futures settled slightly lower on Tuesday as the weight of the rising U.S. dollar pressured the commodity but an oversold condition kept the losses to a minimum.

ICE March cocoa settled $19 lower at $3,137 a metric ton. December ended the session at $3,086, down $6. Throughout the session trading was muted and the downside was minimal due to the current oversold condition of the cocoa market, said Spencer Patton, chief investment officer at Steel Vine Investments in Chicago.

With the dollar gaining about 1% on Tuesday, Patton said cocoa futures held up well. "It was pretty solid to slightly lower," he said, adding that the market will likely work more of its oversold condition off and consolidate or retrace the last $100 of gains.

The greenback gained steam throughout the session as economic optimism stalled with reports that the producer price index for finished goods was up 0.3% in October, below the forecasted 0.6%

On the fundamental side, Patton said cocoa prices at over $3,000 are beyond fundamental value. "While we might see a reflexive bounce, the market is headed below $3,000 because the supply and demand concerns have not materialized. There is adequate rain in the Ivory Coast and demand is not as strong as expected," Patton said, adding that speculation got ahead of itself and cocoa is due for a correction.

In other news, Ivory Coast's shippers and cocoa processors declared 111,403 metric tons of cocoa for export between Oct. 1--the start of the 2009-2010 season--to Nov. 11, which is up 12,382 tons, or 13%, on the 99,021 tons declared in the same period last season, official data obtained by Dow Jones Newswires in Abidjan showed Tuesday.

Declarations included 70,877 tons of "raw" beans, up 49% on last season's 47,516 tons, due to a stronger start of harvesting. The bean equivalent of cocoa products was 40,526 tons, down by 21% on last season's 51,505 tons.

*ICE settlements in dollars per metric ton.

-By Alison Ciaccio, contributing to Dow Jones; 312-750-4072

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 17, 2009 12:53 ET (17:53 GMT)
 
   ICE        Settle       Change     Range (at time of settlement) 
   Dec        $3,086       dn $6       $3,072-$3,102 
   Mar        $3,137       dn $19      $3,110-$3,163 


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