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CBOT Traders: USDA Reports Seen Negative For Soybeans10 days ago
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--U.S. Department of Agriculture crop reports issued Tuesday were slightly supportive for Chicago Board of Trade corn futures, bearish for soybean futures and unfriendly for wheat futures, floor traders said.
CBOT corn is called to open 2-4 cents per bushel higher, and soybeans are called to open 5-10 cents lower. Wheat is expected to start 1-3 cents lower. Day session trading begins at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT).
The USDA pegged corn production at 12.921 billion bushels, below the average of analysts' pre-report estimates of 12.995 billion. The estimate was down from the USDA's October estimate of 13.018 billion bushels.
The USDA put soybean production at 3.319 billion bushels, above the pre-report average estimate of 3.269 billion. The estimate was up from the USDA's October estimate of 3.25 billion.
The average corn yield was estimated at 162.9 bushels per acre, compared to the average analyst estimate of 163.7 bushels and the USDA's October estimate of 164.2 bushels. The average soybean yield was estimated at 43.3 bushels per acre, compared to the average analyst estimate of 42.7 bushels and the USDA's October estimate of 42.4 bushels.
The corn numbers are "a little friendly" as the crop looks smaller than expected, a CBOT trader said. However, there is uncertainty about the reliability of the estimates because harvest has been significantly delayed by wet weather. The corn harvest was just 37% complete as of Sunday, far below the average of 82%, according to the USDA's weekly crop progress report.
Soybeans were 75% harvested as of Sunday, below the average of 92%, the USDA said. Warmer, drier weather last week opened the door for producers to make progress on the corn and soy harvests, and weather looks favorable for harvest through Friday.
Larger-than-expected estimates for soybean production and yield could weigh on neighboring corn, a CBOT floor analyst said. The soybean estimates look "more bearish than the corn is friendly," he said.
The USDA estimated corn carryout at 1.625 billion bushels, compared to the average analyst estimate of 1.65 billion and the USDA's October estimate of 1.672 billion. Soybean carryout was pegged at 270 million bushels, compared to the average analyst estimate of 235 million and the USDA's October estimate of 230 million.
The USDA estimated U.S. wheat carryout at 885 million bushels, above the average analyst estimate of 869 million and the USDA's October estimate of 864 million. The forecast re-confirmed that supplies are large, traders said.
-By Tom Polansek, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-341-5780; tom.polansek@dowjones.com
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=QfH2r6Cl9SvBxovETZx1rA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
By Tom Polansek
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
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