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BNP Paribas: Still A Long Road To Recovery For Italy 75 days ago
(RTTNews) - Italian business confidence indicators are still at relatively low levels by historical standards, BNP Paribas said Thursday.
With a 4.6% year-on-year decline in GDP in the third quarter, there is a still long road to recovery, the bank's economist Clemente De Lucia wrote in a note.
Survey data released today showed that Italy's ISAE business confidence indicator rose to 78.8 in November, up by 1.4 points with respect to the previous month, reaching its highest level since September 2008. According to BNP Paribas, confidence was driven higher by improved expectations on demand.
"Foreign demand was particularly strong, with the foreign orders index gaining 6 points with respect to the previous month," the economist noted. "The progressive ending of the destocking process has also contributed to push up orders."
Citing today's data, the BNP Paribas economist said recovery in the manufacturing sector is likely to be stronger and more sustainable than previously expected. This is likely to push up activity in Q4 2009 and Q1 2010.
Yesterday, ISAE data showed that consumer confidence also increase in November. "Nevertheless, consumers are unlikely to increase substantially their spending in the near future," BNP Paribas said. Their fears of unemployment are still relatively high and their willingness to buy durable goods decreased, according to the survey.
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