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Rapid Economic Recovery In Japan Unlikely: Fitch 91 days ago
(RTTNews) - Fitch Ratings said Tuesday that a rapid economic recovery for Japan is unlikely, despite the government's large stimulus measures.
David Riley, Group Managing Director and head of the Fitch team said the high unemployment rate, deflation and stronger yen would constrain the pace of economic recovery.
"The recovery process for Japan in 2010 is expected to be modest and fragile, since domestic economic conditions point towards a possibly extended period of deflation", Riley noted. "Should this happen, it will represent a material risk to the public debt outlook for the country", he said.
According to Fitch, while the financing flexibility of many 'AAA' rated economies, including the US and the UK allowed them to consider fiscal consolidation measures, the scope for further stimulus measures would be limited. With the credit crisis, the already out-sized budget deficits and the rise in government debt had reduced the 'fiscal space' for policymakers to respond to further adverse shocks, the rating agency said.
The firm pointed out that while the large scale fiscal and monetary policies have been effective in preventing an even sharper downturn in Japan, the government would need to formulate a plan that would stabilize and reduce the debt over the medium term. Fitch expects the economy to contract 5.9% this year.
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