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Market Commentary
CURRENCIES
The September Dollar closed sharply higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.46 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the Dollar. If September extends the decline, April's low crossing at 71.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 73.29. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.44. First support is today's low crossing at 72.30. Second support is April's low crossing at 71.83. The September Euro posted a key reversal down on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 155.461 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If September extends this week's rally, April's high crossing at 159.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 158.530. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 159.050. First support is today's low crossing at 156.250. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 155.460. The September British Pound closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.9591 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at 2.0000 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.9894. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.0000. First support is today's low crossing at 1.9693. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.9591. The September Swiss Franc posted a key reversal down on Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in place or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9686 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at .9957 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at .9895. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .9957. First support is today's low crossing at .9728. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9686. The September Canadian Dollar posted an inside day and closed below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.12 on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at 96.82 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 99.42 are needed to renew the rally off June's low. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 99.02. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 99.42. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 97.54. Second support is June's low crossing at 96.82. The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above broken resistance marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at .9381. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews last week's rally, May's high crossing at .9790 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9381 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at .9565. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March- June decline crossing at .9728. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9381. Second support is June's low crossing at .9251. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy
August crude oil closed higher on Thursday and posted a new all-time high as it extends this year's rally. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year's rally, 150 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 131.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 145.85. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 139.27. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.37. August heating oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends yesterday's breakout above May's high crossing at 404.86. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. This week's breakout above May's high crossing 404.86 has renewed this year's rally into uncharted territory. The recent trading range projects a potential rally to 453.23 later this summer. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 371.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 413.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 391.16. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 371.04. August unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing at 349.55. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. From a broad perspective, August needs to close above 360.21 or below 329.97 to clear up near-term direction in the market. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 360.21. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 349.51. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 346.33. August Henry natural gas posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday extending this week's rally. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 14.380 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.071 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 13.694. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 14.380. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.269. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.071. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food
September coffee closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, the 62% retracement level of the February-March decline crossing at 15.87 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 10- day moving average crossing at 15.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. September cocoa posted a key reversal down on Thursday and closed below the 10-day moving average crossing at 31.68 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.75 are needed confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 35.65 is the next upside target. October sugar closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally, the 87% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 14.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. October cotton closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 70.41 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.58 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains
December Corn closed down 3 1/2-cents at 7.77. December corn closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.66 3/4. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. However, closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 7.36 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 7.82. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 7.96. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.66 3/4. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 7.36 1/4. December wheat closed up 6 3/4-cents at 9.10 1/4. December wheat closed higher on Thursday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 8.27 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.15 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. December Kansas City Wheat closed up 7 1/4-cents at 9.35. December Kansas City Wheat closed higher on Thursday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.38. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 8.62 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. December Minneapolis wheat closed unchanged at 9.55. December Minneapolis wheat closed unchanged on Thursday as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.74 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 9.07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.81 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. SOYBEAN COMPLEX November soybeans closed up 1-cent at 16.31. November soybeans closed higher on Thursday as it extended this year's rally into uncharted territory. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this week's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.30 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. December soybean meal closed up $1.50 at $429.00. December soybean meal closed higher on Thursday and posted a new contract high close for the year. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 432.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 393.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. December soybean oil closed down 47 pts. at 68.98. December soybean oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at 72.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 63.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes
The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline below the 62% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 1838.05. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 1788.18 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing near 1927.58 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. The September S&P 500 index closed slightly higher due to light short covering on Thursday but not before spiking below March's low crossing at 1254.80 as it extended this summer's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, monthly support crossing at 1229.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20- day moving average crossing at 1322.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. The Dow closed higher on Thursday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this summer's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this year's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 1984-2007 rally crossing at 10,919 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,858 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest
September T-bonds closed down 8/32's at 115-28. September T-bonds closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally but remains above the 50% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 1152.03. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at 116-22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 114-27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 116-04. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 116-22. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 114-27. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113-29. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed down $0.35 at $70.95. August hogs closed lower on Thursday ending yesterday's short covering bounce. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. If August extends this week's decline, April's low crossing at 69.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 73.44 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 72.35. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 73.44. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 70.20. Second support is April's low crossing at 69.45. August bellies closed down $3.00 at $37.05. August bellies gapped down and close limit down on Thursday and below April's low crossing at 69.00. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline, monthly support crossing at 65.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. August cattle closed down $0.20 at 103.80. August cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 104.21. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews last month's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. August feeder cattle closed down $0.57 at $111.57. August Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.36. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 116.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 110.75 would renew the decline off last week's high while opening the door for a larger-degree setback during the first half of July. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
August gold closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's rally, April's high crossing at 959.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 916.50 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 950.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 959.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 916.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 901.60. September silver closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, April's high crossing at 18.845 is the next upside target. From a broad perspective, September needs to close above 18.845 or below 16.190 to confirm a breakout of this spring's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is today's high crossing at 18.585. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 18.845. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 17.524. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.329. September copper posted an inside day with a sharply lower close on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this summer's rally, the 87% retracement level crossing at 416.61 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 386.95 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 408.25. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at 416.61. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 386.95. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 375.26. |
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